A Glimpse Into the Future of AI Electric Cars

Last week, I took part in a radio show on AI electric cars of the future. It was based on an article from the BBC’s TopGear, which used to be my favorite car program, but they changed hosts, so I rarely watch it now.

It got me thinking about how fast things are moving and how much misinformation is out there regarding how and when autonomous driving will be viable (it isn’t yet, regardless of what Elon Musk says), the state of electric vehicles today, the very low probability for hydrogen to replace batteries, and where else AI will be introduced into our cars.

What is particularly interesting and concerning is how fast China is moving with these technologies and how much better, faster, and cheaper its electric cars are, even though it currently has a serious quality control problem.

Let’s talk about the rapid advancements in autonomous driving, the current state of EVs, and the role of AI in the automotive industry. Then, we’ll close with my Product of the Week: an automotive cheat tool my wife bought me that
I am impressed with.

Electric Car Status

The pressure on electric car sales has been increasing rapidly of late, mainly because demand for these cars has declined, slowing market growth. This slowing is due to three things: continued quality problems, particularly with Tesla’s new Cybertruck, some of Musk’s political views, and a lack of marketing execution.

As a result, Tesla has taken a hard hit in terms of sales momentum. Given it’s the biggest player, for now, in the electric car market, its problems are having a huge impact on the industry.

But Tesla isn’t alone. Virtually all of the traditional carmakers have had issues pivoting to electrics. Even though electric cars should be automotive appliances that rarely break, they have been breaking a lot — so much so that their repair rate adjusted for volume is far higher than that of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars, resulting in recent surveys indicating that more than half of the current electric car owners want to go back to ICE vehicles.

Additionally, several automakers who indicated they would be 100% electric by 2030 are rethinking this move and pivoting to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).

However, PHEVs have their own problems as they effectively have two power trains, which means massively increased complexity and highly varied usage models. What I’m getting at is that most of the newer PHEVs with around a 40-mile electric range won’t use their gas engine much, but gas engines need to be run, particularly if they are using ethanol, which can gum up the injectors and cause the engine to fail if the gas gets too old.

Here is a piece of advice: If you have a PHEV, find a gas station that sells gas without ethanol. Use that gas, and you won’t have as big a problem. By the way, the same goes for motorized equipment like snow blowers that are left unused for much of the year.

At the same time, the U.S. and much of Europe agreed to switch from the current plug standards for electric cars to Tesla’s plug standard. This change will open Tesla superchargers to everyone and reduce much of the confusion surrounding which plug goes to which car.

The Tesla standard is now called the North American Charging Standard, or NACS. By 2026, most electric cars in the U.S. should have converted to that standard. Older electric cars can use an adapter, but don’t bother buying one until your car gets the software update that will allow it to talk to a Tesla Supercharger.

By the way, if you haven’t tried both types of chargers, the old U.S. standard required a fee and an ATM-like experience: you first had to enable the charger with an app, and then it might allow your car to charge — although often the chargers were broken. Tesla drivers, on the other hand, could just plug in.

However, Tesla chargers have issues with gas-powered cars parking in the charging spaces, Tesla drivers leaving their vehicles longer than necessary, people breaking the chargers, and theft (which isn’t only a Tesla charger problem).

As I see it, the problem is that we began this shift to EVs before we had the needed technology. Lithium-ion batteries were developed after decades of slow progress in battery technology for electric devices like cell phones, iPods, and laptops. Plus, you might recall many of those batteries catching fire, a problem that continues to plague us.

Lithium and cobalt, both used in current lithium-ion batteries, are challenging to mine. Lithium burns hot enough to melt aluminum and some types of steel, as I discovered when a battery nearly burned my house down after melting the steel screws on its containment chamber. Additionally, lithium batteries break down rapidly when overheated, such as during fast charging.

Big Changes Coming

Over the last 30 years, we have ramped up battery development massively. By 2027, we should have viable alternatives to lithium-ion, including solid-state batteries, sodium-ion batteries, and some new lithium versions (cobalt mining is also pretty nasty).

These coming technologies promise ranges of 750 miles or more, 15-year, 1M-mile service life, and other advantages that would make the need for charging away from your home infinitely less pronounced because how often do you drive over 750 miles?

These new batteries, coupled with ever more powerful chargers, should result in sub-10-minute charging times without the current danger of prematurely aging your batteries. China’s XPeng already has a car with a near 500-mile range at a really attractive price, suggesting it is becoming as significant a threat to existing carmakers as Japan once was. Until now, Tesla has had a considerable range and price advantage in this market.

So electric propulsion will become more convenient and competitive with gas cars, but what about AI?

Autonomous cars will have five levels. Level 5 means they never need a driver. Currently, most cars are hovering at Level 2+, which pretty much entails the ability to avoid things like the car in front of you.

Here is a video that does a nice job of explaining the different levels.